vineri, 14 septembrie 2007

Prima casa: investitie sau nu?

Dacă e să mă întrebaţi pe mine, o chestie pe care trebuie să dai 100.000 de euro trebuie mereu tratată ca o investiţie. Am explicat deja într-un comentariu cum văd această problemă.

Ca să rezum:

1. Nu mai trăim pe timpul lui Ceauşescu, când un om îşi păstra serviciul zeci de ani şi eventual ieşea la pensie de la serviciul la care muncise prima oară. Acum piaţa muncii e mult mai dinamică, azi munceşti undeva, mâine altundeva, şi nu îţi permiţi să investeşti o parte considerabilă a veniturilor într-o locuinţă care riscă să se devalorizeze. Ce te faci dacă trebuie să te muţi de la Bucureşti la Timişoara? Nu poţi lua şi blocul cu tine. Va trebui să vinzi. Peste câţiva ani eşti sigur că vânzarea te va ajuta să obţii măcar banii pe care i-ai cheltuit?

2. Din păcate mă văd nevoit să-l contrazic făţiş pe comentatorul care spune că prima locuinţă nu trebuie tratată ca o investiţie, fiindcă oricum trebuie să locuieşti undeva (fiind o necesitate). Chiar şi în condiţiile unei pieţe vitrege se pot găsi soluţii de compromis (chirie, locuit cu părinţii etc.) care să fie mai puţin proaste decât soluţia de a cumpăra când preţurile sunt pe val. Soluţiile de compromis te pot ajuta în viaţă pe termen lung; cumpăratul când preţurile sunt la apogeu îţi va da peste cap toată viaţa.

Iată păţania unui japonez, de pildă, care a avut nefericita inspiraţie să cumpere chiar în momentul de vârf al bubble-ului japonez (1991): casa pe care a dat atunci 400.000 USD nu mai valora în 2005 decât jumătate. Şi omul mai avea de plătit la bancă încă 300.000 de USD. Scăderea i-a schimbat brutal viaţa, întrucât l-a transformat din proprietar în prizonier al locaţiei supraevaluate. "He said he would like to move closer to the city but cannot: the sale price would not cover the $300,000 he still owes the bank."

Se poate spune că a făcut o investiţie proastă, nu-i aşa? Iar articolul acela din New York Times mai conţine câteva avertismente din care unul mi se pare extrem de important:

"Another [warning] is to avoid property that may be hard to unload when the market cools." Evitaţi să cumpăraţi proprietăţi de care vă va fi greu să vă debarasaţi în cazul unei crize.

Ştiţi voi care.

35 de comentarii:

Forza Viola spunea...

Manole,interesant articol.

Iata ce cred eu (simplificat) :
1.Piata imobiliara poate avea trenduri de crestere dar si descrestere(corectii,ajustari de pret).
2.Este bine sa avem propria noastra proprietate .

Cred ca nu numai eu sunt de acord cu aceste afirmatii.

Acum sa vedem ce se poate intampla:
1. Suntem aproape de apogeul curbei preturilor.Nu se recomanda cumpararea unui activ imobiliar acum.Se va astepta corectia .Banii se vor investii in altceva, sau se prefera chiria in locul cumpararii.

2. Suntem undeva in la mijlocul sau in treimea curbei ascendente a preturilor. Se asteapta cativa ani pana la corectie si apoi se cumpara.

Parerile mele :
Merg pe varianta 2 si nu cred ca dupa corectie preturile vor ajunge mai jos decat sunt ele acum.
De ce : crestere progresiva a salariilor si aliniere la preturile din UE.

O alta opinie personala care ma face sa recomand oamenilor sa cumpere imobiliare cu credit ipotecar este ca o metoda de economisire fortata, f.buna pe termen lung. Adica oamenii sunt fortati sa nu cheltuie pe "prostii" ci pe mijloace fixe(assets).pt ca banii odata ce ii ai se duc foarte usor !
Pana si japonezul ala ghinionist care a cumparat pe maxim, dupa ce isi va achita casa o va putea lasa mostenire copiilor(care se vor bucura de o casa platita).

Da, sunt de acord cu Manole, ca o casa iti reduce din mobilitate.totusi romanii sunt destul de sedentari,asa ca e o chestie care tine de mentalitate pana la urma.

Pana la urma fiecare isi asuma riscul si face ce crede el de cuvinta. Cumpara acum sau asteapta scaderea. Vorba americanului:"put your money where your mouth is".

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

forza viola afirma:
"2. Suntem undeva in la mijlocul sau in treimea curbei ascendente a preturilor. Se asteapta cativa ani pana la corectie si apoi se cumpara.
Parerile mele :
Merg pe varianta 2 si nu cred ca dupa corectie preturile vor ajunge mai jos decat sunt ele acum.
De ce : crestere progresiva a salariilor si aliniere la preturile din UE."

Raspund:
-corectia preturilor e iminenta, in SUA a si inceput, deci nu ne aflam pe curba, ne aflam inpunctul maxim sau dupa el. Nici vorba de cativa ani, bineinteles daca nu vrei sa fii orb cu tot dinadinsul la evenimentele de pe piata mondiala de capital.
=Salariile nu au cum sa creasca in euro, cel mult in lei, crestere rapid anihilaa de evolutia cursului de schimb. Economia romaneasca intra in ciclul de recesiune, urmand tendintele globale.
-Pe piata imobiliara, preturile romanesti au depasit deja nivelul de pe piata europeana. Daca in afara pretului si a numarului de camere te mai uiti si la suprafata, atunci vei vedea ca Militari e mai scump decat Torino sau Marseille..
-este evident ca micii speculatori de apartamente vechi au nevoie ca de aer de inca un an sau doi ca sa se scape de "investitii".

alexandra spunea...

parca japonezii platesc impozit pentru mostenire 90%

Anonim spunea...

Ce am vazut acum la tv pe bbc word ;in anglia cozi la banci ca sa-si retraga bani. pina acum au fost retrasi 4 milioane de sterline!!!! 4% din valoarea depozitelor daca am inteles bine.CE SE-NTIMPLA FRATILOR ?????

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

Se intampla frate ceea ce nu vor sa priceapa cu nici un chip proprietarii de apartamente vechi si agentii imobiliari de cartier.
E criza pe pietele de capital, si criza e generata de isteria imobiliara si a creditelor imobiliare.
Traiti in Romania ca pe o insula si credeti ca nimic nu va va ajunge. Mai au unii inconstienta disperarii de a prognoza in continuare noi si minunate cresteri de preturi la imobile si dezvoltare economica pana la balamuc.
Nu va apucati sa puneti banii la saltea, dar daca aveti depozite, mutati-le la acele banci care nu s-au dat in stamba peste masura cu creditele imobiliare. Mai exista si banci din astea, nu dau nume ca sa nu fac reclama, vedeti insa si voi care se lauda si cu ce. Alt plasament ar fi titlurile de stat, sau obligatiunile, sau chiar fondurile monetare sau mixte. Spre deosebire de piata imobiliara, bursa va cadea si isi va reveni, dupa ce va fi sterilizata de capitalurile din....UE.

The_Magus spunea...

Articol BBC World despre ce se intampla in Anglia:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6996136.stm

Se pare ca Alex.Dumitrascu are dreptate.

Manole, agent imobiliar spunea...

E vorba de 1 miliard de Lire sterline, adica 4-5% din valoarea depozitelor, daca inteleg bine articolul.

Intr-adevar, uimitoare cozile. Cum era la noi inainte sa cada Banca Religiilor.

Dragos Galateanu spunea...

Comunicatul Bank of England: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2007/090.htm

Suma retrasa este de aprox 2 miliarde, banca nu a facut inca niciun comentariu

monique spunea...

Datorita pretului mai mic al apartamentelor in constructii noi, vandute in stadiul de proiect, multi aleg acest gen de investitie. nu stiu exact cum isi finanteaza dezvoltatorii imobilele construite si vandute astfel, dar banuiesc ca din credite si din bani de la cumparatori. ce clauze acoperitoare contin contractele dintre cumparator si dezvoltator? ce se intampla intr-o situatie de crah imobiliar?

Orfeu spunea...

E amuzant ce spuneti voi. Sa vedem ce o sa se intample. Pana la urma Romania depinde foarte mult de fonduri venite din afara. Scaderea leului nu e numai din cauza ca asa trebuia sa fie, doar ca pana de curand erau foarte multi euro pe piata fara vreun scop anume. Din cauza crizei de lichiditati din afara, acestia au plecat ca sa acopere unele gauri. Zic si eu ...

Dragos Galateanu spunea...

Si asta e doar inceputul. Nu vor mai fi cozi pentru achizitionarea de I phone sau Play Station 3, vor fi cozi in fata bancilor pentru retrageri.

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

orfeu:
"doar ca pana de curand erau foarte multi euro pe piata fara vreun scop anume. Din cauza crizei de lichiditati din afara, acestia au plecat ca sa acopere unele gauri. Zic si eu ..."

Si eu zic:
Pleaca fiindca isi marcheaza profiturile. Si pleaca in euro, ca doar nu o sa plece in "leul tare" ca nu sunt nebuni. Prin urmare cumpara euro ca sa se poata retrage.
Nota de plata ramane pe seama celor care au contractat credite imobiliare in euro. Si daca astia nu pot plati la un moment dat, nota de plata va fi achitata de catre banci, iar daca bancile vor intra in criza de lichiditati datorita neplatii ratelor la credite, atunci vor plati deponentii respectivelor banci.
De asta se sta la coada la ghiseele bancilor cu mare expunere pe piata creditului imobiliar.
Si in tot balamucul asta, dezvoltatorii si speculatorii imobiliari din Romania ramasi captivi in sistem, fac o ultima incercare de a prognoza cresterea preturilor, poate poate vor reusi sa scape cumva pe banii ultimilor fraieri. In Anglia nu se intampla prognoze din asta fiindca se face puscarie pentru manipularea pietei, la noi nu se face.

Anonim spunea...

mda...eu (ca unu care vrea sa se implice in piata ) ce pot sa zic? mai am de stat in chirie 40 zile (conform contractului) pana se intoarce proprietarul. in aceste 40 de zile eu trebuie (de fapt chiar vreau) sa spre aporbare un dosar de credit ipotecar, la una din bancile ABN sau ING (nu conteaza numele bancilor). detin si un mic avans acolo. dar din ce se zice..ar trebui sa mai astept inainte de a face acest pas. problema mea este ca nu mai pot sta in chirie (e deja al 9-le an) si vreau si eu sa am proprietatea mea. normal ca ma gandesc (si chiar mi-e frica), ca peste 10 ani (cand vreau sa vand ceea ce sper sa achizitionez in 1 luna de amu incolo)nu va mia valora cat am dat pe ea, dar nu cred ca am ce face.
multumesc

Dragos Galateanu spunea...

Un ghid realizat de Channel 4 pentru englezii care doresc sa investeasca in tara noastra: http://www.channel4.com/4homes/buyingabroad/countryguides/cg_romania.html

Anonim spunea...

e tare Channel 4, unde a vazut aici Wal-Mart si Tesco?

Anonim spunea...

ASA zici tu ca e tare,mai degraba o manipulare...te-ai uitat atent la ''poza desenata'' ?? PALMIERI !!!!!! PAI BUCURESTIUL O FI PRIN AFRICA SAU ARE O CLIMA LA CARE SA SE ADAPTEZE PALMIERII ?? UITE CE ESTE SCRIS;; ,,Planorama is a new state-of-the-art residential luxury apartment development in Bucharest, complete with designer manicured gardens and paved walkways''HA HA HA ... CRED CA BUCURESTIUL ESTE NUMAI O FOTOGRAFIE !!!!IN REALITATE ESTE O DELUZIE CA TOATA ROMANIA DE FAPT...TARA DE CIUBUCARI SI DE POLITICI DE K*k*T CARE AU GRIJE NUMAI DE BUZUNARELE LOR IN LOC SA SE OCUPE DE NEVOILE OAMENILOR IN FRUNTE CU PAPUSA MUPETS BASESCU.

Bogdan spunea...

Foarte bine punctat. Un apartament cumparat la ora actuala in Bucuresti trebuie privit ca o investitie!

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

Anonim dixit:
"problema mea este ca nu mai pot sta in chirie (e deja al 9-le an) si vreau si eu sa am proprietatea mea. normal ca ma gandesc (si chiar mi-e frica), ca peste 10 ani (cand vreau sa vand ceea ce sper sa achizitionez in 1 luna de amu incolo)nu va mia valora cat am dat pe ea, dar nu cred ca am ce face.
multumesc"


Probabil ca nu ai ce face, dar nu te-ar fi facut mai fericit sa nu stii in ce te bagi.
Si oricum, ai niste argumente bune ca sa negociezi pretul.
Eu as incerca cel putin sa iau credtit in lei, chiar daca dobanda este ceva mai mare. Poti cumpara euro cu leii, la licitatia interbancara, daca nu stii cum se face intreaba.

Viorel spunea...

tare cu planorama si palmierii!!!
Din ce povesteau clientii lor "fericiti" pe un forum, AP. au suprafete mai mici decat in schite, parcarea o sa fie o mare problema, si intre cele 4 blocuri turn este o distanta de sub 15 m.
Exact ca in articolul de prezentare, nu? :)

Anonim spunea...

alex.dumitrascu spunea...
Eu as incerca cel putin sa iau credtit in lei, chiar daca dobanda este ceva mai mare. Poti cumpara euro cu leii....


da..asa e..dar salariul meu este in euro..ma rog..negociat in euro..si nu vad nici un avantaj in a lua credit in RON

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

Daca te gandesti zece minute sigue te prinzi.

Anonim spunea...

The leu depreciated with more than 8% since end-July, closing almost all the appreciation from the first months of the year when the currency appreciated in our opinion without any economic fundament. The explanation can be related on the increase in global emerging market risk aversion,
but also on the deteriorated Romanian economic fundamentals. Thus, we had a strong increase in
the current account deficit around 13% of GDP in Q2 2007 compared with 10.3% of GDP at end-2006), lower financing with foreign direct
investment of the C/A deficit(only 38.7% in Jan-July 2007 compared with 91% in 2006), lower GDP growth in the first half of 2007 (although is in the main part explained by the output loss in
agriculture), and increasing inflation (to 5% in August 2007 from a record low of 3.7% in March
2007) and rising inflationary expectations (for instance we expect an increase in annual inflation rate towards 5.8% yoy in October). In the current international and domestic environment, we do not expect a substantial rebounding of leu in the next period. We think that is likely that the leu exchange rate would remain at high levels or even continue to depreciate.

Analyst: Martin Stelzeneder

martin.stelzeneder@raiffeisenresearch.at

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

Indeed!

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

Foarte coerenti astia de la Raiffesen

http://www.smartfinancial.ro/smartbank/noutati+bancare/raiffesien+bank+estimeaza+un+curs+de+echilibru+pentru+euro+la+3%2C4+lei

alex.dumitrascu spunea...

O oarecare balmajeala despre dobanzi. De fapt Bogdan Baltazar omite sa spuna ca dobanzile la depozite atrase au si inceput sa creasca.

http://business.rol.ro/content/view/51745/2/

Anonim spunea...

To buy or not to buy? That is the question
Mar 3rd 2005
From The Economist print edition

Today it is often much cheaper to rent than to buy a house

“IT IS always better to buy a house; paying rent is like pouring money down the drain.” For years, such advice has encouraged people to borrow heavily to get on the property ladder as soon as possible. But is it still sound advice? House prices are currently at record levels in relation to rents in many parts of the world and it now often makes more financial sense—especially for first-time buyers—to rent instead.
Homebuyers tend to underestimate their costs. Once maintenance costs, insurance and property taxes are added to mortgage payments, total annual outgoings now easily exceed the cost of renting an equivalent property, even after taking account of tax breaks. Ah, but capital gains will more than make up for that, it is popularly argued. Over the past seven years, average house prices in America have risen by 65%, those in Britain, Spain, Australia and Ireland have more than doubled. But it is unrealistic to expect such gains to continue. Making the (optimistic) assumption that house prices instead rise in line with inflation, and including buying and selling costs, then over a period of seven years—the average time American owners stay in one house—our calculations show that you would generally be better off renting (see article).
He warned, if you make such a bold claim at a dinner party, you will immediately be set upon. Paying rent is throwing money away, it will be argued. Much better to spend the money on a mortgage, and by so doing build up equity. The snag is that the typical first-time buyer keeps a house for less than five years, and during that time most mortgage payments go on interest, not on repaying the loan. And if prices fall, it could wipe out your equity. In any case, a renter can accumulate wealth by putting the money saved each year from the lower cost of renting into shares. These have, historically, yielded a higher return than housing. Putting all your money into a house also breaks the basic rule of prudent investing: diversify. And yes, it is true that a mortgage leverages the gains on your initial deposit on a house, but it also amplifies your losses if house prices fall.
“I want to have a place to call home,” is a popular retort. Renting provides less long-term security and you cannot paint all the walls orange if you want to. Home ownership is an excellent personal goal, but it may not always make financial sense. The pride of “owning” your own home may quickly fade if you are saddled with a mortgage that costs much more than renting. Also, renting does have some advantages. Renters find it easier to move for job or family reasons.
“If I don't buy now, I'll never get on the property ladder” is a common cry from first-time buyers. If house prices continue to outpace wages, that is true. But it now looks unlikely. When prices get out of line with what first-timers can afford, as they are today, they always eventually fall in real terms. The myth that buying is always better than renting grew out of the high inflation era of the 1970s and 1980s. First-time buyers then always ended up better off than renters, because inflation eroded the real value of mortgages even while it pushed up rents. Mortgage-interest tax relief was also worth more when inflation, and hence nominal interest rates, was high. With inflation now tamed, home ownership is far less attractive.

The divergence between rents and house prices is, of course, evidence of a housing bubble. Someday prices will fall relative to rents and wages. After they do, it will make sense to buy a home. Until they do, the smart money is on renting.

Anonim spunea...

Global house prices

Still want to buy?
Mar 3rd 2005
From The Economist print edition

According to our latest house-price indicators, it is now much cheaper to rent than to buy a house in many countries
WHEN The Economist launched its global house-price indicators in 2002, residential-property markets were merely warming up. Today they are red hot in many of the 20 countries we cover: in half of them, prices have risen by around 10% or more in the past year (see table). But for the first time since we started to track them, housing markets in several countries have slowed sharply.
The most dramatic slowdown has been in Australia where, according to official figures, the 12-month rate of increase in house prices fell to only 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, down from nearly 19% at the end of 2003. Another index, calculated by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which is based on prices when contracts are signed rather than at settlement, shows that average house prices fell by 7% in the year to December; prices in Sydney plunged by 16%. The Reserve Bank of Australia's quarter-point increase in interest rates this week is likely to give prices another downward nudge.
Britain's housing market has also cooled since last summer. The Nationwide index, which we use, was still up by 10% in the year to February, down from 20% growth in July. Other anecdotal evidence suggests that prices have fallen since last summer in many parts of the country.
In contrast, America's housing bubble continues to inflate. Although the rate of increase slowed in the fourth quarter, prices were still up by 11.2% over the year. In California and Washington, DC, housing prices rose by more than 20%. Alan Greenspan, the Fed's chairman, recently admitted in congressional testimony that there may be property bubbles in “certain areas” and a risk that prices could decline. There is certainly evidence that prices are being driven by speculative demand: a new study by the National Association of Realtors shows that one-quarter of all houses bought in 2004 were for investment, not owner-occupation.
House prices are still rising rapidly in continental Europe. French house-price inflation has accelerated to 16%, its fastest on record in real terms and only a whisker behind Spain's 17%. Prices in Italy, Sweden and Belgium are also rising at close to 10%. Excluding Germany, where prices fell again in 2004, average home prices in the euro area have risen by 12.5% over the past year, causing some concern at the European Central Bank.
Punishing prices, puny yields
The main reason why housing markets have cooled in Australia and Britain is that first-time buyers have been priced out and demand from buy-to-let investors has slumped. While house prices have soared, rents have risen modestly or even fallen in some cities. In America, Britain, Spain New Zealand and Australia, average net rental yields (allowing for management fees, maintenance and empty periods) have fallen to 3.5% or less, well below mortgage rates. Shane Oliver, the chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, estimates that net rental yields on houses in Sydney are only 1%. Landlords are nowhere near covering their true costs, but many still hope to make their profit from capital gains. That sounds ominously similar to the days of the dotcom bubble, when it was argued that the link between share prices and profits no longer mattered.
According to calculations by The Economist (with the help of Julian Callow of Barclays Capital), house prices are at record levels in relation to rents (ie, yields are at record lows) in America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium. America's ratio of prices to rents is 32% above its average level during 1975-2000. By the same gauge, property is “overvalued” by 60% or more in Britain, Australia and Spain, and by 46% in France.
The ratio of prices to rents is a sort of price/earnings ratio for the housing market. Just as the price of a share should equal the discounted present value of future dividends, so the price of a house should reflect the future benefits of ownership, either as rental income for an investor or the rent saved by an owner-occupier. To bring the ratio of prices to rents back to equilibrium, either rents must rise sharply or prices must fall. Yet central banks cannot allow rents to surge as this would feed into inflation. Rents directly or indirectly account for 29% of America's consumer-price index, so rising inflation would force the Fed to raise interest rates more swiftly, which could trigger a fall in house prices. Alternatively, if rents continue to rise at their current annual pace of 2.5%, house prices would need to remain flat for over ten years to bring America's ratio of house prices to rents back to its long-term norm. There is a clear risk prices might fall.
Lower real interest rates might justify a higher p/e ratio. For example, real interest rates in Ireland and Spain were reduced significantly when these countries joined Europe's single currency—though not by enough to explain the whole rise in house prices. In Britain, where tax relief on interest payments has been scrapped, real after-tax rates are close to their average over the past 30 years, and so do not justify a higher price/rent ratio. In America, too, real post-tax interest rates are not historically low, in part because mortgage-interest tax relief is worth less at lower rates of inflation. For instance, if interest rates are 10%, tax relief is 30% and inflation is 7%, the real after-tax interest rate is 0%. If interest rates are 6% and inflation is 3% (ie, the same gap as before), and tax rates stays the same, the real interest rate is 1.2%.
The unusual divergence between house prices and rents does not just affect investors; it also undermines the conventional wisdom that it is always better to buy a house, because “rent is money down the drain”. Today in many countries it is much cheaper to rent than to buy.
Rent asunder
Take a two-bedroom flat in London, which you could buy for £450,000 ($865,000). To rent the same flat would currently cost £1,700 a month. In addition to a 6% mortgage rate, a buyer would face annual maintenance and insurance costs of, say, 1.25%. In the first year, the rent of £20,400 compares with total mortgage interest and maintenance payments of £33,000, a saving of £12,600. Interest payments would be less if a large deposit were paid, but in that case the income lost from not investing that money elsewhere has to be taken into account.
Assume that rents rise by 3% a year, in line with wages, while house prices from now on rise in line with inflation of 2%. At the end of seven years (the average time before the typical homeowner moves), you would be almost £35,000 better off renting, taking account of the capital appreciation and buying and selling costs. In other words, even without a fall in real house prices—which many believe to be likely—buying a house in Britain today seems a poor investment.
The figures look even more striking in the San Francisco Bay Area, where it is possible to rent an $800,000 house for $2,000 a month. Making the same assumptions about rents and house prices, but also deducting tax relief on a fixed-rate mortgage and adding property taxes, a buyer would pay $120,000 more over seven years than if he had rented. House prices in San Francisco would need to rise by at least 4% a year (2% in real terms) for it to prove cheaper to buy a house. Since 1950 American house prices in real terms have risen by an annual average of just over 1%. To expect them to rise faster from their current dizzy heights smacks of irrational exuberance, to say the least.

Anonim spunea...

有什么 有什么网址 有什么新闻 有什么博客 有什么论文 有什么图片 有什么音乐 有什么搜商 有什么帖客 天气预报 有什么

Anonim spunea...

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Rezultatul recensământului 2011 va accelera scăderea prețurilor pe piața imo?

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